DAX Index Forecast

Outlook: DAX index is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-term Tactic¹ :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹Short-term revised.

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

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About DAX Index

The DAX index represents the 40 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It serves as a key benchmark for the German stock market, reflecting the performance of Germany's blue-chip companies across various sectors, including automotive, financial services, and pharmaceuticals. The composition of the DAX is reviewed quarterly, ensuring that the index remains representative of the leading German corporations. Its movements are closely watched by investors and analysts worldwide as an indicator of the health and direction of the German economy and, by extension, the broader European economic landscape.

As a price-weighted index, the DAX's performance is influenced by the share prices of its constituent companies, with higher-priced stocks having a greater impact. Its history dates back to 1988, and it has undergone significant evolution, most notably expanding from 30 to 40 constituents in 2021. This expansion aimed to provide a more comprehensive and diversified view of Germany's leading publicly traded entities. The DAX is a crucial tool for investment strategies, serving as the basis for various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other financial products that track its performance.

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ML Model Testing

F(Pearson Correlation)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis))^3,4,5 X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DAX index

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of DAX index holders

a:Best response for DAX target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?

DAX Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

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Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook	B1	B1
Income Statement	Ba1	C
Balance Sheet	B2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	B3	Caa2
Cash Flow	Ba3	Ba3
Rates of Return and Profitability	B2	Baa2

*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
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References

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