*The dataset and analytical data are refreshed instantly.
*We present a new approach that merges reinforcement learning with game theory for understanding strategic interactions between neural network agents. Our model leverages decision functions, rooted in game theory, to guide its initial learning process. This is then followed by supervised fine-tuning for deeper comprehension.
Benchmarks
AUC Score :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning (GTRL)
Hypothesis Testing : Shapley Additive exPlanations
Surveillance : U.S. Consumer Market
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Game-Theoretic Reinforcement Learning (GTRL)
Hypothesis Testing : Shapley Additive exPlanations
Surveillance : U.S. Consumer Market
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
U.S. Consumer Consumption Behavior and Financial Resilience (Game Theory)
Behavioral Market Intelligence*
Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning (RL), supported by interacting neural networks, provide a dynamic framework for understanding how U.S. consumer behavior evolves under changing economic conditions. The system continuously learns from real-time data to identify behavioral patterns, feedback loops, transitions, and shifts in demand, moving beyond static measurement to predict how consumers adapt over time. It can track current behavioral states—such as Expansion, Latent Demand, Defensive Spending, Contraction, Recovery, and Precautionary Saving—and estimate the probability and direction of movement between these states.Research Scope
This research focuses specifically on consumer behavior in the United States, examining how U.S. households across different income groups respond to changing economic conditions, expectations, and financial pressures. The study continuously monitors the relationship between future economic expectations, current consumption behavior, and financial resilience to identify how American consumers are changing their spending, saving, borrowing, and purchasing decisions.The objective is to identify not only what consumers think, but also what they are actually doing, and to detect potential shifts in consumer behavior before they become visible in traditional economic indicators.
XYZ Bubble Chart Framework
X-Axis — Future Expectations
The X-axis measures how consumers perceive their future economic and financial situation. It captures the direction and strength of consumer expectations, rather than their current economic condition.The scale moves from:
Pessimistic ←————————→ Optimistic
A consumer positioned toward the left side of the axis expects their economic or financial situation to deteriorate or remain under significant pressure.
A consumer positioned toward the right side expects their situation to improve and demonstrates greater confidence in the future.
What the X-axis measures
The Future Expectations Index can be constructed from several dimensions:Expected change in household income
Expected change in purchasing power
Expectations regarding employment security
Expectations regarding the national economy
Expectations regarding inflation and cost of living
Expectations regarding interest rates and borrowing conditions
Expected ability to save
Expected ability to make discretionary purchases
Expectations regarding household financial security
Expected standard of living over the next 6–12 months
How to interpret the X-axis
The X-axis essentially answers:How confident are consumers that their economic situation will improve?
This makes the axis inherently forward-looking. It is particularly valuable because consumers may behave differently depending on whether they believe today's financial pressure is temporary or permanent. For example, two households may currently have similar spending levels, but if one expects its financial position to improve while the other expects further deterioration, they represent very different future demand profiles.
Y-Axis: Current Consumption Momentum
The Y-axis measures what consumers are actually doing — or intend to do — with their consumption.It represents the direction of current consumption behavior rather than future expectations.
The scale moves from:
Declining Consumption ←————————→ Increasing Consumption
What the Y-axis measures
The Current Consumption Momentum Index can include:Change in total household expenditure
Purchase frequency
Average basket value
Discretionary spending
Durable goods purchases
Services consumption
Entertainment and leisure spending
Travel and hospitality spending
Premium-category purchasing
Trading up
Trading down
Brand switching
Private-label penetration
Planned major purchases
Purchase postponement
Reduction in non-essential expenditure
How to interpret the Y-axis
The Y-axis answers:What are consumers doing with their money today?
A high Y-axis position indicates that consumers are maintaining or increasing consumption.
A low position indicates that consumers are reducing, postponing, or restricting consumption.
This creates the foundation for identifying behavioral contradictions.
For example:
High expectations + low consumption
is fundamentally different from:
Low expectations + high consumption.
Both consumers may currently spend at similar levels, but their underlying economic psychology is completely different.
Z-Dimension — Financial Capacity & Resilience
The Z dimension represents consumers’ financial capacity to sustain or change their current consumption behavior.While the X-axis measures what consumers expect, and the Y-axis measures what consumers are currently doing, the Z-axis measures how much financial room they have to continue that behavior.
The dimension can range from:
Low Financial Resilience → High Financial Resilience
It can be constructed from indicators such as:
Ability to cover unexpected expenses
Savings buffer
Debt-to-income pressure
Ability to save each month
Disposable income after essential expenses
Dependence on credit
Ability to absorb price increases
Ability to maintain current consumption if income declines
Financial security over the next 6–12 months
Interpreting the Three Dimensions Together
The three dimensions should be read as a single behavioral system:X = Mindset — What consumers expect
Y = Behavior — What consumers do
Z = Capacity — What consumers can sustain
This combination allows the research to distinguish between behaviors that may appear similar on the surface but have very different underlying conditions.
For example, two consumer groups may both be increasing their spending and therefore occupy a similar position on the Y-axis. However, if one group has high financial resilience while the other has low resilience, their consumption patterns have very different implications.
High X + High Y + High Z
→ Healthy, financially supported Expansion
High X + Low Y + High Z
→ Latent Demand with the financial capacity to convert into future consumption
Low X + High Y + Low Z
→ Defensive Spending with potential financial vulnerability
Low X + Low Y + Low Z
→ High-risk Contraction
Therefore, the map should not be interpreted simply as a measure of consumer confidence or spending. It is designed to reveal the relationship between expectations, behavior, and financial sustainability.
Reading Movement Over Time
Because the research is continuously updated, the most important insight comes from observing how segments move across the XYZ space over time.A movement such as:
Contraction → Recovery → Latent Demand → Expansion
may indicate an improving consumer cycle, where behavior begins to recover, expectations strengthen, and deferred demand gradually converts into actual consumption.
Conversely:
Expansion → Defensive Spending → Precautionary Saving → Contraction
may indicate increasing economic uncertainty, deteriorating financial confidence, and eventual pressure on consumer spending.
The position of each segment shows its current state; the direction of movement shows its trajectory; and the Z dimension indicates the financial strength behind that trajectory.
This makes the XYZ map a dynamic early-warning and opportunity-identification framework for U.S. consumer behavior, rather than a static snapshot of consumer sentiment.
U.S. Consumer Behavior in 2026
Only 32% of consumers expressed optimism about the economy, down 7 percentage points.Concern about rising prices and cost of living remains the dominant economic issue.
Consumers are increasingly focused on how to manage their household budgets rather than simply whether the economy is performing well. Cost of living is the biggest pressure Inflation and higher everyday expenses are affecting consumers' perceptions of their financial situation.
The pressure is particularly strong among lower- and middle-income households, which are more likely to feel that essential expenses are becoming difficult to manage.
Consumers are protecting essential spending but cutting back on nonessential purchases.
Categories facing greater pressure include:
Jewelry and accessories
Home decor
Furniture
Sports and outdoor equipment
Short-term accommodations
Other large or postponable purchases
In some categories, 42–56% of consumers expect to reduce spending over the next three months.
The important point is that consumers are not necessarily stopping consumption altogether—they are prioritizing differently.
Consumers are increasingly "trading down"
One of the strongest behavioral trends is trading down.Instead of abandoning a category, consumers may:
switch from premium to mass-market brands,
choose a cheaper product,
buy smaller pack sizes,
wait for promotions, or
purchase less frequently.
Category consumption can remain resilient even when brand loyalty declines.
Essential spending remains relatively resilient
Consumers continue to prioritize categories they cannot easily avoid.Food, household necessities and other essential purchases remain comparatively protected.When consumers cannot reduce consumption—for example, gasoline—they may simply absorb higher prices. When a purchase can be postponed, such as furniture or jewelry, postponement becomes much easier.
An interesting consumer behavior is the willingness to maintain small pleasures while postponing major purchases.
U.S. consumers are not necessarily consuming less—they are consuming more selectively.
What This Means for Brands
For companies operating in the U.S., the research points to four major strategic priorities:Strengthen the value proposition — clearly explain why the product is worth its price.
Segment by income and financial pressure — different consumer groups are behaving very differently.
Prepare for trading down — consumers may switch brands rather than leave the category.
Protect essential categories while creating affordable entry points — smaller packs, accessible price points and good/better/best architectures can become important.
The 2026 U.S. consumer is best characterized as financially cautious, highly value-conscious, and increasingly selective—willing to spend when a purchase feels essential, meaningful, or genuinely worth the money. This conclusion is derived from KappaSignal’s behavioral consumption analysis, which focuses not only on stated consumer sentiment but also on observable changes in consumption patterns, spending priorities, and purchasing behavior. By examining how consumers reallocate spending across categories and respond to economic pressures, the methodology provides a behavioral perspective on the evolving U.S. consumer, revealing a shift from overall consumption reduction toward more deliberate and value-driven consumption.
Methodology