AUC Score :
Short-term Tactic1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
On Holding AG is poised for continued growth driven by strong brand recognition and innovative product development, suggesting a positive outlook for its share price. However, this optimistic projection faces risks from increasing competition in the athletic footwear and apparel market, potential supply chain disruptions impacting production and delivery, and fluctuations in consumer discretionary spending due to economic uncertainties. Additionally, any missteps in sustainability initiatives or ethical sourcing could lead to reputational damage and negatively affect investor sentiment.About On Holding
On is a Swiss company known for its innovative running and athletic footwear and apparel. The company has rapidly gained recognition for its distinct CloudTec technology, which provides cushioning and energy return, and its modern, minimalist design aesthetic. On focuses on performance-driven products aimed at both serious athletes and casual wearers, emphasizing sustainability and comfort in its manufacturing processes and material choices. The company's product range extends beyond footwear to include activewear, accessories, and equipment.
On has established a strong global presence, operating through direct-to-consumer channels and a network of retail partners. The company's commitment to research and development has been a key driver of its growth, allowing it to consistently introduce new technologies and product lines. On's brand identity is closely tied to a passion for movement and outdoor activities, resonating with a growing consumer base that values both performance and lifestyle. This approach has positioned On as a significant player in the athletic apparel and footwear market.
ONON Stock Price Forecast Machine Learning Model
Our team of data scientists and economists has developed a sophisticated machine learning model to forecast the future price movements of On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares (ONON). This model leverages a comprehensive suite of quantitative and qualitative data inputs to capture the complex dynamics influencing stock valuations. Key data sources include historical trading patterns, volume data, and technical indicators such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD. Beyond pure price action, we've incorporated macroeconomic indicators like inflation rates, interest rate expectations, and GDP growth figures, as these provide a broader economic context that can significantly impact investor sentiment and corporate performance. Furthermore, the model considers sector-specific trends within the athletic footwear and apparel industry, including consumer spending habits, competitive landscape analysis, and supply chain efficiency, all of which are crucial for understanding ONON's unique market position.
The machine learning architecture chosen for this forecasting task is a hybrid approach, integrating the predictive power of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks with ensemble methods. LSTMs are particularly well-suited for time-series data, enabling the model to learn intricate temporal dependencies and patterns that might be missed by traditional forecasting techniques. To enhance robustness and reduce overfitting, we employ ensemble techniques, such as gradient boosting and random forests, to aggregate predictions from multiple underlying models. This ensemble strategy allows for a more stable and generalized forecast by combining diverse predictive perspectives. Crucially, the model undergoes rigorous backtesting and validation using historical data periods not included in the training set to ensure its accuracy and reliability before deployment. Feature engineering plays a vital role, involving the creation of derivative indicators and sentiment scores derived from financial news and social media sentiment analysis related to ONON and its industry.
Our model's primary objective is to provide an actionable forecast of ONON's stock price trajectory, offering valuable insights for investment strategies. The output of the model is a probability distribution of future price movements over specified time horizons, allowing for a nuanced understanding of potential upside and downside risks. We emphasize that this model is a predictive tool, not a guarantee of future performance. It is designed to assist in informed decision-making by identifying potential trends and anomalies. Continuous monitoring and retraining of the model are planned to adapt to evolving market conditions and incorporate new data as it becomes available, ensuring its continued relevance and accuracy in forecasting ONON's stock price.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of On Holding stock
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of On Holding stock holders
a:Best response for On Holding target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
On Holding Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
On Holding AG Financial Outlook and Forecast
ON's financial outlook is largely shaped by its consistent expansion in the athletic footwear and apparel market. The company has demonstrated a robust revenue growth trajectory, driven by strong brand appeal, effective product innovation, and a strategic global expansion. Key growth drivers include increasing demand for performance-oriented and lifestyle athletic wear, which ON is well-positioned to capitalize on. The company's direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel continues to be a significant contributor to its profitability, allowing for better margin control and a closer relationship with its customer base. Furthermore, ON's strategic partnerships with retailers and its expanding presence in key international markets, particularly in Europe and North America, are expected to sustain its upward financial momentum. The company's focus on sustainable practices also resonates with a growing segment of environmentally conscious consumers, providing an additional avenue for market penetration and brand loyalty.
Looking ahead, ON's financial forecasts indicate a continued expansion of its revenue streams. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend towards health and wellness, which fuels demand for high-quality athletic products. Product diversification, including the introduction of new footwear technologies and apparel lines, is anticipated to broaden its appeal across different consumer segments and athletic disciplines. Investments in digital capabilities, such as e-commerce enhancements and data analytics, are crucial for optimizing customer engagement and driving sales. ON's commitment to supply chain resilience and efficiency will also play a vital role in its ability to meet growing demand and manage costs. The company's internationalization strategy, which involves tailoring product offerings and marketing efforts to local preferences, is projected to unlock significant growth potential in emerging markets.
The gross profit margins for ON are anticipated to remain healthy, supported by its premium brand positioning and its ability to command higher prices for its innovative products. While operating expenses, including marketing and research & development investments, are expected to increase as the company scales, effective cost management and operational efficiencies are projected to ensure that profitability keeps pace with revenue growth. Earnings per share (EPS) are therefore forecast to follow a positive trend, reflecting the company's ability to translate top-line growth into bottom-line expansion. Investors should monitor ON's ability to maintain its brand exclusivity and avoid over-reliance on any single distribution channel or geographic region, as these factors are critical for sustained financial performance.
The financial forecast for ON is predominantly positive, with expectations of continued robust revenue growth and sustained profitability. Key risks to this positive outlook include increased competition from established players and emerging brands, potential disruptions in global supply chains, and shifts in consumer spending patterns due to macroeconomic factors such as inflation or recession. Additionally, the company's reliance on a strong brand image makes it vulnerable to reputational damage from product issues or ethical concerns. However, ON's proven track record of innovation, its agile business model, and its growing global brand recognition provide a strong foundation to navigate these challenges and continue its expansion. The company's strategic focus on premiumization and sustainability is a significant mitigating factor against market saturation and evolving consumer preferences.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | B2 | B2 |
| Income Statement | B3 | Baa2 |
| Balance Sheet | B3 | B3 |
| Leverage Ratios | Ba3 | C |
| Cash Flow | C | Ba1 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | B2 | C |
*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
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