AUC Score :
Short-term Tactic1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Stepwise Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
ON will likely experience continued revenue growth driven by its strong brand appeal and expanding product lines, particularly in performance running and active lifestyle segments. However, a significant risk associated with this prediction is the potential for increased competition from established sportswear giants and emerging direct-to-consumer brands, which could pressure margins and market share. Furthermore, ON's reliance on a strong global supply chain presents a risk of disruption from geopolitical events or unforeseen economic downturns, potentially impacting production and delivery timelines. Another prediction is that ON will successfully leverage its digital channels for direct sales and customer engagement, further strengthening brand loyalty. The risk here lies in the ever-evolving digital marketing landscape and the cost of acquiring new customers online, which may not always translate into profitable growth.About On Holding
On, a Swiss company, is a globally recognized athletic footwear and apparel brand. Established with a focus on performance and innovation, On is renowned for its proprietary cushioning technology, CloudTec. This technology is designed to provide a unique running experience, offering both soft landings and explosive take-offs. The company has rapidly gained traction in the sports and lifestyle markets, appealing to athletes and consumers alike who seek cutting-edge design and functional excellence. On's product portfolio extends beyond running shoes to include a range of athletic apparel and accessories.
On's strategic approach emphasizes direct-to-consumer sales alongside a growing presence in specialty retail channels. This dual strategy allows the company to maintain strong brand control and foster direct relationships with its customer base while also achieving broad market penetration. The company's commitment to sustainability is also a key aspect of its brand identity, influencing its material sourcing and manufacturing processes. On has established itself as a significant player in the competitive athletic wear industry, driven by its innovative product development and distinct brand positioning.
On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares Stock Forecast Model
As a collaborative team of data scientists and economists, we propose a sophisticated machine learning model designed to forecast the future trajectory of On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares (ONON). Our approach is fundamentally data-driven, leveraging a comprehensive suite of economic indicators, company-specific financial data, and market sentiment analysis. We will integrate macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rates, inflation figures, interest rate policies, and consumer confidence indices, recognizing their profound influence on the broader equity market and specifically on consumer discretionary spending, a key driver for companies like On Holding AG. Furthermore, we will meticulously incorporate On Holding AG's fundamental financial health, including revenue growth, profitability margins, inventory turnover, and debt levels, as these metrics directly reflect the company's operational efficiency and financial resilience. The model's architecture will be built upon a long-term dependency modeling framework, which has demonstrated superior performance in capturing complex temporal patterns prevalent in financial time series data.
The core of our forecasting model will employ a hybrid architecture combining the strengths of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformer-based models. LSTMs are particularly adept at learning sequential patterns and capturing long-range dependencies within financial data, which is crucial for understanding the cumulative impact of past events on future stock performance. We will augment this with Transformer models, leveraging their attention mechanisms to weigh the importance of different input features at various time steps, thereby enhancing the model's ability to discern subtle relationships between disparate data sources. Feature engineering will be a critical step, involving the creation of derived metrics such as moving averages, volatility measures, and relative strength indicators, in addition to incorporating sentiment analysis scores derived from news articles and social media related to the apparel and footwear industry and On Holding AG directly.
Our forecasting horizon will focus on medium-term predictions, aiming to provide actionable insights for strategic investment decisions. The model will undergo rigorous validation using historical out-of-sample testing, employing metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and directional accuracy. We will also implement robustness checks and sensitivity analyses to assess the model's performance under various hypothetical economic scenarios and to identify key drivers of forecast uncertainty. Continuous retraining and recalibration of the model will be essential to adapt to evolving market dynamics and new information, ensuring its ongoing relevance and predictive power. This data-centric, analytically rigorous model represents our commitment to providing a statistically sound and economically grounded approach to forecasting ONON stock performance.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of On Holding stock
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of On Holding stock holders
a:Best response for On Holding target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
On Holding Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
ON Financial Outlook and Forecast
ON Holding AG, a prominent player in the athletic footwear and apparel market, is projected to experience continued growth in its financial performance. The company's strategic focus on innovation, premium product offerings, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels has laid a strong foundation for future expansion. Analysts anticipate that ON will maintain its upward trajectory, driven by increasing brand awareness and a growing global customer base. Key to this outlook is the company's ability to successfully introduce new product lines that resonate with its target demographic and expand its geographical reach. The ongoing investment in research and development is expected to yield innovative designs and technologies, further solidifying ON's competitive edge in a dynamic market. Furthermore, the company's commitment to sustainability and ethical manufacturing practices aligns with evolving consumer preferences, providing an additional tailwind for its financial prospects.
The financial forecast for ON indicates a positive revenue growth trajectory over the coming years. This growth is expected to be fueled by a combination of factors, including an expanding product portfolio, increased penetration in key international markets, and a strengthening DTC business. The company's digital strategy, which emphasizes a seamless online shopping experience and personalized customer engagement, is a critical component of this forecast. As ON continues to optimize its supply chain and operational efficiencies, it is also poised to see improvements in its gross margins. Investments in marketing and brand building are anticipated to further enhance customer acquisition and retention, contributing to sustained revenue streams. The company's ability to manage its inventory effectively and adapt to changing consumer demand will be crucial in realizing these revenue projections.
Profitability for ON is also expected to show a positive trend, reflecting the anticipated revenue growth and ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency. As the company scales its operations, it is projected to benefit from economies of scale, which could lead to improved operating margins. The strategic expansion of its retail footprint, coupled with the continued success of its e-commerce platform, is expected to drive increased sales volume and, consequently, higher profitability. While the company will continue to invest in product development and marketing, the management's focus on disciplined cost control and strategic resource allocation is likely to support a healthy increase in net income. The ongoing shift towards higher-margin products and the optimization of its DTC channel are also significant contributors to the projected profit enhancements.
The outlook for ON is largely positive, with expectations of sustained revenue growth and enhanced profitability. The company's strong brand equity, innovative product pipeline, and effective go-to-market strategy position it well for continued success. A key risk to this positive prediction would be increased competition from both established athletic brands and emerging players, potentially impacting market share and pricing power. Another significant risk lies in potential disruptions to the global supply chain, which could affect production and delivery timelines, thereby impacting sales and profitability. Furthermore, a significant economic downturn could reduce consumer discretionary spending on premium athletic wear, which would negatively affect ON's performance. The company's ability to nimbly adapt to these potential challenges will be paramount in achieving its financial objectives.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | B3 | Ba1 |
| Income Statement | Caa2 | Baa2 |
| Balance Sheet | C | Baa2 |
| Leverage Ratios | Ba3 | Caa2 |
| Cash Flow | B2 | Caa2 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | B3 | Baa2 |
*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
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