NZX 50 index poised for moderate gains amid global economic shifts

Outlook: Dow Jones New Zealand index is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-term Tactic¹ :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
ML Model Testing : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹Short-term revised.

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

The Dow Jones New Zealand Index is poised for a period of expansion driven by strong domestic economic fundamentals and favorable international trade relations. However, this positive outlook is not without potential headwinds. A significant risk lies in potential global economic slowdowns which could dampen export demand and investor sentiment, thereby impacting the index's upward trajectory. Furthermore, unforeseen geopolitical events in key trading partner regions could introduce volatility and disrupt supply chains, posing another considerable risk to the predicted growth.

About Dow Jones New Zealand Index

The Dow Jones New Zealand index, often referred to as the S&P/NZX 50, serves as the primary benchmark for the New Zealand stock market. It represents the performance of the 50 largest and most liquid companies listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX). This index is a widely followed indicator of the health and direction of the New Zealand economy, reflecting the collective performance of its leading publicly traded corporations across various sectors.

As a market-capitalization-weighted index, the S&P/NZX 50 gives greater influence to companies with larger market values. Its composition is reviewed periodically to ensure it accurately reflects the evolving landscape of the New Zealand corporate sector. Investors and analysts utilize this index to gauge market trends, assess investment opportunities, and understand the broader economic sentiment within New Zealand.

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ML Model Testing

F(Polynomial Regression)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML))^3,4,5 X S(n):→ 3 Month $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones New Zealand index

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of Dow Jones New Zealand index holders

a:Best response for Dow Jones New Zealand target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

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Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook	Caa2	Ba1
Income Statement	C	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	C	Ba2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba1	Ba1

*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
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