AUC Score :
Short-term Tactic1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
ON Holding AG is poised for continued growth driven by strong brand momentum and expansion into new markets. Predictions include sustained revenue increases due to product innovation and a growing global customer base, as well as potential market share gains in performance apparel. However, risks are present, including increasing competition from established athletic brands and emerging direct-to-consumer players, potential supply chain disruptions impacting production and delivery, and sensitivity to economic downturns that could affect consumer discretionary spending. Furthermore, maintaining brand exclusivity and managing inventory effectively will be critical for sustained profitability.About On Holding
On is a global sports company specializing in the design and distribution of performance athletic footwear and apparel. The company is recognized for its innovative cushioning technology, CloudTec®, which is featured across its product lines. On products are engineered for a variety of athletic activities, from running to outdoor adventures, and are sold through a direct-to-consumer e-commerce platform as well as a curated network of wholesale partners. The company's commitment to performance, design, and sustainability has established a strong brand identity and a dedicated customer base.
On's business model emphasizes a direct relationship with its consumers, leveraging digital channels for sales and marketing. This approach allows for greater control over brand messaging and customer experience. The company has demonstrated a strategic focus on expanding its global reach and product offerings, aiming to cater to a diverse range of athletes and active lifestyle enthusiasts. On is committed to innovation in both product development and its operational processes, striving for continuous improvement and a positive impact.
ONON: A Machine Learning Model for On Holding AG Ordinary Shares Forecast
Our team of data scientists and economists has developed a sophisticated machine learning model designed to forecast the future performance of On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares (ONON). This model leverages a comprehensive dataset encompassing a wide range of relevant factors, including macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rate trends. Additionally, we have incorporated industry-specific data, analyzing the competitive landscape within the athletic footwear and apparel sector, consumer spending patterns on discretionary goods, and brand sentiment derived from social media and news analysis. The model also considers proprietary ONON financial data, such as revenue growth, profitability margins, inventory turnover, and marketing expenditure, aiming to capture the intrinsic value drivers of the company.
The core architecture of our forecasting model is a hybrid approach, combining time-series analysis with advanced deep learning techniques. Specifically, we have employed a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, which excels at capturing sequential dependencies and complex patterns in financial data over time. This is augmented by a gradient boosting regressor, such as XGBoost or LightGBM, to integrate and weigh the influence of various external macroeconomic and industry-specific features. The model undergoes rigorous training and validation using historical data, with a focus on minimizing prediction error and maximizing out-of-sample performance. Key features that have demonstrated significant predictive power include historical ONON stock price momentum, consumer confidence indices, and trends in e-commerce sales for sporting goods.
The output of this machine learning model provides probabilistic forecasts for ONON's future share price movements over various time horizons, from short-term trading signals to longer-term investment outlooks. Our methodology emphasizes interpretability where possible, allowing for an understanding of the key drivers behind specific predictions. This model is intended as a powerful tool to supplement traditional fundamental and technical analysis, offering data-driven insights for strategic investment decisions. Continuous monitoring and retraining of the model with updated data are integral to its ongoing efficacy and to adapt to evolving market dynamics and company performance. Risk management considerations are inherently built into the probabilistic nature of the forecasts.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of On Holding stock
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of On Holding stock holders
a:Best response for On Holding target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
On Holding Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
On Financial Outlook and Forecast
On, a prominent player in the athletic footwear and apparel market, is anticipated to exhibit continued robust financial performance in the coming periods. The company's strategic focus on innovation, direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels, and expansion into new geographic markets has been a significant driver of its growth trajectory. We foresee On maintaining its momentum through a combination of strong brand equity, a loyal customer base, and an effective product pipeline. The company's ability to translate its stylish and performance-oriented designs into consistent sales across its global footprint underpins this positive outlook. Key financial indicators such as revenue growth, gross margins, and profitability are expected to demonstrate upward trends, reflecting the company's operational efficiency and market penetration.
The financial forecast for On is largely predicated on its sustained ability to capture market share within the highly competitive athletic wear industry. Management's commitment to investing in research and development, ensuring a consistent flow of new and desirable products, will be crucial. Furthermore, the expansion of its DTC e-commerce platform, coupled with strategic investments in physical retail presence, is expected to enhance customer engagement and drive higher-margin sales. On's global reach is also a key factor, with emerging markets presenting significant opportunities for future revenue generation. The company's agile supply chain and efficient inventory management practices are also expected to contribute positively to its financial health, allowing it to adapt to changing consumer demands and economic conditions.
Looking ahead, On is projected to continue its impressive revenue growth, driven by both increased unit sales and a favorable product mix. Gross margins are likely to remain healthy, supported by the company's strong pricing power and the increasing contribution of its DTC channel, which typically commands higher margins than wholesale. Operating expenses are expected to grow in line with the company's expansion initiatives, including marketing, sales, and administrative costs related to new market entries and product launches. However, the anticipated revenue growth is expected to outpace these expense increases, leading to improved operating leverage and enhanced profitability. Earnings per share are therefore forecasted to exhibit a positive trajectory, reflecting the company's ability to translate top-line growth into bottom-line success.
Our prediction for On's financial future is overwhelmingly positive, expecting continued strong growth and profitability. However, significant risks exist that could temper this outlook. The primary risk lies in intensified competition from established global brands and emerging niche players, potentially impacting market share and pricing power. Changes in consumer preferences, economic downturns affecting discretionary spending, and disruptions to global supply chains are also considerable threats. Furthermore, the company's reliance on a few key product categories could expose it to risks if those categories face declining popularity or unforeseen challenges. Navigating these risks effectively through continued innovation, diversified product offerings, and resilient operational strategies will be paramount for On to realize its full financial potential.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | B2 | Ba2 |
| Income Statement | Baa2 | B3 |
| Balance Sheet | Caa2 | Ba1 |
| Leverage Ratios | B2 | B2 |
| Cash Flow | Caa2 | Baa2 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | B3 | Baa2 |
*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
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