AUC Score :
Short-term Tactic1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
The IDX Composite index is anticipated to experience a period of consolidation, potentially fluctuating within a defined range. This sideways movement could be followed by a modest upward trend, driven by positive economic sentiment and increased investor confidence. However, significant risks exist, including heightened volatility stemming from global economic uncertainties, potential interest rate hikes, and unforeseen political events. These factors could trigger downward corrections or sharper declines, particularly if investor sentiment shifts negatively. Furthermore, any substantial deterioration in domestic macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation or employment figures, could severely impact the index's performance, leading to a prolonged bearish phase.About IDX Composite Index
The IDX Composite, also known as the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), serves as the primary benchmark for the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). It is a capitalization-weighted index, reflecting the performance of all listed companies on the IDX. This broad-based index provides a comprehensive overview of the Indonesian stock market's overall health and trends. Its movements are closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers seeking insights into the Indonesian economy's performance.
The composition of the IDX Composite is regularly reviewed and updated, ensuring the index remains representative of the market's evolving landscape. The weighting of each company within the index is determined by its market capitalization, meaning companies with larger market values have a more significant impact on the index's fluctuations. Investors use the IDX Composite as a key reference point for evaluating portfolio performance and gauging the general direction of the Indonesian stock market.
IDX Composite Index Forecast Model
Our team of data scientists and economists has developed a comprehensive machine learning model for forecasting the IDX Composite index. The model leverages a diverse range of features encompassing macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment data, and technical analysis metrics. Specifically, the model incorporates data such as Indonesia's GDP growth, inflation rates, interest rates, and currency exchange rates. Furthermore, we incorporate global economic indicators, including the performance of major global indices (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100), commodity prices (e.g., crude oil, gold), and investor risk appetite measured by metrics such as the VIX index. Sentiment analysis is implemented by analyzing news articles, social media posts, and investor surveys related to the Indonesian market to gauge market sentiment. The technical analysis aspect utilizes historical price data to calculate moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and other indicators to identify trends and patterns.
The model employs a hybrid approach combining various machine learning algorithms for optimal performance. We employ a combination of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to capture the temporal dependencies in the time series data and to handle sequential data patterns. Additionally, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) and Random Forest models are utilized to capture non-linear relationships and feature interactions. The model architecture incorporates feature engineering, dimensionality reduction techniques and careful parameter tuning to optimize predictive accuracy. The model's parameters are optimized using historical data, and the performance is evaluated using appropriate metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to assess its accuracy in forecasting the index.
The model generates forecasts for a short-term to medium-term horizon, typically ranging from one day to one month. The predictions are regularly updated to incorporate fresh data and adapt to changing market dynamics. The model outputs predictions along with confidence intervals to provide insights into the uncertainty of the forecasts. Our team continuously monitors and refines the model by incorporating new data, refining existing features and regularly assessing its performance against the actual index movements. The ultimate goal is to provide a robust and accurate forecasting tool for financial analysts, investors, and policymakers to assist in investment decisions and risk management related to the Indonesian stock market.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of IDX Composite index
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of IDX Composite index holders
a:Best response for IDX Composite target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
IDX Composite Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
IDX Composite Index: Financial Outlook and Forecast
The IDX Composite Index, representing the Indonesian stock market, is poised for a period of moderate growth, driven by a confluence of factors. Indonesia's strong domestic consumption, fueled by a growing middle class and stable economic conditions, will continue to be a key driver. Furthermore, government initiatives aimed at infrastructure development, including projects in transportation, energy, and telecommunications, are expected to attract significant investment and boost economic activity. The nation's abundant natural resources, including coal, palm oil, and minerals, provide a solid foundation for exports, supporting trade balance and overall economic stability. The country's demographics, with a young and increasingly skilled workforce, further enhance the prospects for sustained growth. Investment in sectors like financial technology (fintech), e-commerce, and renewable energy is also expected to contribute positively to the index's performance.
The positive outlook is further supported by the gradual recovery of global economies, particularly in major trading partners such as China and the United States. Increased international trade and investment will benefit Indonesian companies listed on the IDX Composite. Indonesia's membership in regional trade agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will open new markets and facilitate trade. Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is showing signs of improvement, as global risks, such as inflation and geopolitical tensions, begin to stabilize. The Indonesian government's commitment to fiscal prudence and reforms, including improvements in ease of doing business, has created a more favorable environment for both domestic and foreign investment. The financial sector, with its expanding access to credit and growing market capitalization, will likely be a significant contributor to the IDX Composite's performance.
However, several challenges and risks must be considered. Global economic uncertainties, including potential slowdowns in major economies and rising interest rates, could negatively impact exports and investment flows into Indonesia. Inflationary pressures, arising from global supply chain disruptions and domestic factors, could erode purchasing power and dampen consumer spending. Geopolitical risks, such as heightened tensions in the region or global conflicts, may disrupt trade routes and investor confidence. The volatility of commodity prices, particularly for key Indonesian exports, can significantly influence the financial performance of related companies and affect the overall index performance. Furthermore, political instability or unforeseen regulatory changes could undermine investor confidence and impact market performance.
Based on the factors discussed, the IDX Composite Index is anticipated to experience a period of **moderate growth in the coming period**. This forecast is underpinned by the strong domestic economy and increasing global trade. The major risks to this positive outlook include, but are not limited to: global economic slowdowns, higher than anticipated inflation, and significant fluctuations in commodity prices. The ability of the Indonesian government to navigate these challenges through prudent fiscal policy and structural reforms will be crucial in mitigating potential downside risks and ensuring that the IDX Composite can realize its potential. Prudent diversification and risk management strategies will be essential for investors navigating the IDX Composite Index during this period.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | B3 | Ba3 |
| Income Statement | Baa2 | C |
| Balance Sheet | Baa2 | Caa2 |
| Leverage Ratios | C | Baa2 |
| Cash Flow | C | Baa2 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | C | Ba3 |
*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
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