AUC Score :
Short-term Tactic1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Inductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1Short-term revised.
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
Cresud faces a mixed outlook, with potential for moderate growth driven by its agricultural land portfolio and strategic investments, particularly if commodity prices remain favorable and the Argentine economy stabilizes. However, the company is exposed to significant risks stemming from Argentina's volatile macroeconomic environment, including high inflation, currency devaluation, and political instability, which could severely impact profitability and asset values. Furthermore, weather-related events and fluctuations in global agricultural markets pose considerable operational risks, potentially affecting yields and revenue streams. Investor sentiment and broader market conditions in emerging markets also present uncertainties.About Cresud
Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. (CRESY) is an Argentine agricultural company primarily engaged in the production of agricultural commodities, real estate development, and investments in financial assets. The company's core operations revolve around the cultivation of crops such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and sunflowers across significant landholdings in Argentina and other South American countries. Cresud also owns and operates substantial cattle ranches, contributing to its diversified agricultural portfolio. Beyond primary production, CRESY actively develops real estate projects, including residential and commercial properties, further expanding its business activities and revenue streams.
In addition to its agricultural and real estate ventures, Cresud holds a portfolio of investments in various financial assets. This strategic diversification aims to mitigate risks and capitalize on market opportunities. CRESY's presence extends beyond Argentina, with operations and investments in neighboring countries, solidifying its position as a significant player in the regional agricultural and real estate sectors. The company's strategy is centered on sustainable agricultural practices, land development, and strategic investments to drive long-term growth and shareholder value.
CRESY Stock Forecast Model
Our team proposes a comprehensive machine learning model for forecasting the performance of Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. American Depositary Shares (CRESY). The model will leverage a diverse set of features categorized into several key areas: technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and company-specific financial data. Technical indicators will include moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands to identify trends, momentum, and volatility. Macroeconomic features will encompass relevant economic indicators for Argentina, such as inflation rates, GDP growth, interest rates, and exchange rates, as well as global commodity prices, considering Cresud's exposure to agricultural land and real estate. Finally, we will incorporate Cresud's fundamental financial data, including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), debt levels, and operational performance metrics to gauge its financial health and growth potential. This multi-faceted approach aims to capture both internal and external influences on CRESY's performance.
The machine learning model will be built using a hybrid approach, combining the strengths of different algorithms. We will begin with time-series analysis techniques such as ARIMA and its variations to establish a baseline forecast, accounting for the time-dependent nature of stock data. Subsequently, we will explore advanced machine learning methods, including Random Forests, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and potentially Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to capture non-linear relationships and complex patterns in the data. Feature engineering will play a crucial role, including lag features, rolling window statistics, and transformation techniques to optimize model performance. Data preprocessing will involve rigorous cleaning, handling missing values, and scaling features for effective model training. Model selection will be based on performance metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and appropriate financial metrics.
Model evaluation will encompass both in-sample and out-of-sample testing. The in-sample evaluation will assess the model's ability to fit the training data and to establish a baseline. The out-of-sample evaluation will be performed using a rolling window approach, simulating real-world forecasting conditions. This will provide a more accurate assessment of the model's generalization performance. Furthermore, the model's predictions will be validated by an expert review of the model results and its behavior. We will employ techniques such as backtesting on historical periods to evaluate the model's accuracy and predictive power. The model's output will provide forecasts for CRESY, along with confidence intervals, facilitating informed investment decisions. The model will be continuously monitored and retrained with new data to ensure its accuracy and reliability over time.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of Cresud stock
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of Cresud stock holders
a:Best response for Cresud target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
Cresud Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
Cresud ADS Financial Outlook and Forecast
The financial outlook for Cresud, a prominent Argentine agricultural and real estate company, presents a mixed picture. The company's performance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions in Argentina, including currency fluctuations, inflation, and government policies affecting the agricultural sector. Recent years have witnessed significant volatility due to economic instability. Cresud's primary business revolves around agricultural production, primarily soybeans, corn, and wheat, along with livestock operations and real estate development. Its financial results are therefore closely tied to global commodity prices, weather patterns impacting crop yields, and the overall health of the Argentine economy. Strong global commodity prices in the past have provided a favorable backdrop, but persistent inflation and currency devaluation continue to erode profitability if not effectively managed. Furthermore, the company's significant land holdings offer a degree of intrinsic value and a hedge against inflation; however, the liquidity of these assets can be challenging during times of economic stress. Cresud's strategic focus on expanding its land portfolio, improving agricultural efficiency, and developing real estate projects demonstrates its commitment to long-term growth.
Cresud's operational efficiency and cost management are vital determinants of its financial success. Modern farming techniques, technology adoption, and careful management of input costs are critical for enhancing margins. The company's ability to navigate regulatory hurdles and maintain positive relationships with the Argentine government also plays a crucial role. Given the large land portfolio, managing real estate assets, including residential, commercial, and rural properties, becomes a central aspect of its financial performance. Fluctuations in property values, the success of development projects, and the ability to attract tenants or buyers significantly influence the company's financial outlook. The company's ability to effectively mitigate risks associated with weather patterns, commodity price volatility, and currency exchange rates through hedging strategies and diversified operations is essential. Any investments in technology to improve yields or increase efficiency provide an additional financial boost.
The company's strategic initiatives and expansion plans offer a potential for sustained growth. Cresud's focus on expanding its landholdings, improving agricultural productivity, and selectively pursuing real estate development projects suggests a long-term growth trajectory. Investments in modern farming techniques, infrastructure improvements, and the diversification of its agricultural output contribute to enhanced resilience and profitability. As the company is based in Argentina, its financial outlook is subject to the Argentinian economy and its ability to grow. However, the company's geographic diversification and international partnerships can mitigate some of these risks. Effective cost management, disciplined capital allocation, and the ability to adapt to evolving market conditions are critical for realizing the growth potential. Furthermore, any potential acquisitions or strategic partnerships could also influence the financial performance.
The overall financial outlook for Cresud is cautiously optimistic, with the expectation of long-term growth. The company's focus on the core agricultural business and the development of its real estate projects positions it to benefit from potential recoveries in the Argentine economy. The primary risk associated with this outlook centers on the continued volatility in the Argentine economy and the potential for adverse policy changes impacting the agricultural sector. Additional risks include unexpected weather events, swings in commodity prices, and exchange rate fluctuations. However, Cresud's strong land portfolio, operational expertise, and strategic focus on operational efficiency help to mitigate some of these risks. The company can also benefit from international partnerships and diversified operations that increase its potential for long-term growth. Success in navigating these challenges will be key to achieving its long-term financial goals.
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| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | Caa2 | Ba3 |
| Income Statement | Ba3 | Baa2 |
| Balance Sheet | C | B1 |
| Leverage Ratios | C | B2 |
| Cash Flow | C | B3 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | Caa2 | B3 |
*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
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