AUC Score :
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
The PSI-20 index is expected to experience volatility in the near term, driven by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. While positive factors such as strong corporate earnings and low interest rates could support a potential upward trend, the ongoing inflation concerns, rising energy prices, and the possibility of a recession pose significant risks. Overall, the index is likely to remain range-bound, with potential for both upside and downside movements depending on how these factors evolve.About PSI-20 Index
The PSI-20 is the main stock market index of the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange, representing the performance of the 20 largest and most liquid companies listed on the exchange. It is a market-capitalization-weighted index, meaning the companies with the largest market capitalizations have a greater influence on the index's value. The PSI-20 serves as a benchmark for the overall performance of the Portuguese stock market, providing investors with a measure of how well the largest and most influential companies are performing.
The PSI-20 is widely followed by investors and analysts as a key indicator of the health of the Portuguese economy. It is also used as a basis for a variety of investment products, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, and derivatives. The index is calculated and published daily by Euronext Lisbon and is available on a variety of financial websites and data providers.
Unlocking the Future: A Machine Learning Model for PSI-20 Index Prediction
Our team of data scientists and economists has developed a sophisticated machine learning model to predict the behavior of the PSI-20 index. Our model leverages a multi-layered approach, drawing from a rich dataset encompassing historical index data, macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment analysis, and even news sentiment. We employ a combination of advanced algorithms, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Random Forest models, to analyze the complex interplay of these variables and identify patterns that influence future index movements.
The LSTM networks excel at capturing the temporal dependencies inherent in financial data, allowing us to model the impact of past index fluctuations on future performance. Random Forest models, on the other hand, provide valuable insights by identifying the most influential factors driving index movements across various economic sectors. By combining the strengths of these algorithms, we achieve a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics influencing the PSI-20 index.
Our model is continuously refined and validated against real-world data, ensuring its accuracy and robustness. The insights derived from our predictive model provide valuable guidance to investors, enabling them to make informed decisions regarding their portfolio allocations. We believe that our model serves as a powerful tool for navigating the complexities of the Portuguese stock market and unlocking the potential for profitable investment strategies.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of PSI-20 index
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of PSI-20 index holders
a:Best response for PSI-20 target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do KappaSignal algorithms actually work?
PSI-20 Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
Navigating the Uncertain Landscape: A Look at the PSI-20's Future
The PSI-20, Portugal's benchmark stock market index, faces a complex landscape in the near future. While the Portuguese economy has shown resilience in recent years, navigating the current global economic climate requires careful consideration. The nation's strong tourism sector and recovering real estate market offer some positive indicators, but challenges remain. Rising inflation, persistent supply chain disruptions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to exert pressure on global economies, including Portugal's.
The outlook for the PSI-20 is contingent upon a number of key factors, including the trajectory of global economic growth, interest rate policies, and energy prices. Should the global economy experience a deeper recession than currently anticipated, the PSI-20 could face downward pressure. However, if global growth remains relatively stable, the index could potentially benefit from Portugal's strong domestic demand and improving economic fundamentals. The European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening cycle, aimed at curbing inflation, may impact investor sentiment and affect the PSI-20's performance.
Despite the uncertain global environment, Portugal's ongoing economic reforms and structural adjustments are creating a more competitive and resilient economy. The nation's commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms, coupled with its focus on attracting foreign investment, could contribute to long-term growth and stability. The PSI-20's performance will also be influenced by the performance of its constituent companies, particularly those operating in the banking, energy, and tourism sectors.
Overall, the PSI-20's future outlook remains uncertain, hinging on the interplay of global and domestic economic factors. While potential headwinds exist, Portugal's economic reforms and a resilient domestic market offer grounds for optimism. Investors will need to monitor the evolving global economic landscape, interest rate policies, and the performance of key sectors within the Portuguese economy to make informed decisions.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | Ba3 | Caa1 |
| Income Statement | B2 | B3 |
| Balance Sheet | Baa2 | C |
| Leverage Ratios | B3 | Caa2 |
| Cash Flow | Baa2 | C |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | Caa2 | C |
*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
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