AUC Score :
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
Equity analysts forecast a moderate increase in the PSI-20 index in the near term. While economic headwinds persist, positive earnings momentum and a potential easing of global tensions could support the index's upward trajectory. However, geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and the impact of monetary policy tightening remain key risks that could derail the predicted growth.Summary
The PSI-20, also known as the Portuguese Stock Index 20, is the benchmark equity index for the Portuguese stock market. It comprises the 20 most liquid stocks listed on the Euronext Lisbon exchange. As a market-capitalization-weighted index, the PSI-20 provides a broad representation of the performance of the Portuguese equity market.
The PSI-20 has a long history, dating back to 1991. It has since become one of the most important indicators of the Portuguese economy. The index is calculated and disseminated by Euronext Lisbon and is used by investors to track the overall performance of the Portuguese stock market as well as to make investment decisions.
PSI-20 Index Prediction with Machine Learning
To build a machine learning model for PSI-20 index prediction, we leveraged a comprehensive dataset encompassing historical index values, macroeconomic indicators, and market sentiment data. We employed supervised learning techniques, specifically a gradient boosting algorithm, which excels in handling complex nonlinear relationships. The model was trained on a substantial dataset, enabling it to capture intricate patterns and dependencies within the data.
To assess the model's performance, we conducted rigorous evaluations employing various metrics, including mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The model achieved impressive results, demonstrating its ability to accurately forecast PSI-20 index movements. Additionally, we implemented cross-validation techniques to ensure the model's robustness and prevent overfitting.
The PSI-20 index prediction model provides valuable insights into the future behavior of the Portuguese stock market. Financial institutions, investors, and policymakers can utilize these predictions to make informed decisions regarding portfolio allocation, risk management, and economic planning. The model continuously learns and adapts to evolving market dynamics, ensuring its relevance and accuracy over time.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of PSI-20 index
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of PSI-20 index holders
a:Best response for PSI-20 target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
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PSI-20 Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
PSI-20 Index: Positive Outlook Amidst Global Economic Uncertainty
The Portuguese Stock Index (PSI-20) has experienced a steady upward trend in recent months, reflecting the improving economic outlook in Portugal and the broader European region. The index is expected to continue its positive momentum in the coming months, supported by strong corporate earnings and positive investor sentiment. Despite lingering concerns over global economic growth and inflation, the PSI-20 is poised for further gains due to its exposure to sectors that are expected to benefit from the economic recovery.
The PSI-20 index is heavily weighted towards the financial, energy, and telecommunications sectors, which are expected to benefit from the improving economic environment. The financial sector, in particular, has seen a surge in activity as businesses and consumers increase their borrowing and spending. The energy sector is also expected to perform well, driven by rising demand and geopolitical tensions. The telecommunications sector is also expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by the increasing adoption of digital technologies and the expansion of 5G networks.
While the PSI-20 index is expected to continue its positive trend, there are some risks to consider. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia could lead to economic disruptions and volatility in the financial markets. Additionally, rising inflation and interest rates could weigh on corporate profits and investor sentiment. However, the overall economic outlook for Portugal and the broader European region remains positive, and the PSI-20 index is well-positioned to benefit from these tailwinds.
In summary, the PSI-20 index is expected to continue its positive performance in the coming months, driven by strong corporate earnings, positive investor sentiment, and exposure to sectors that are expected to benefit from the economic recovery. While there are some risks to consider, the overall outlook for the index remains positive. Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by investing in the PSI-20 index to gain exposure to the growing Portuguese economy.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | B2 | B1 |
| Income Statement | C | C |
| Balance Sheet | Baa2 | B2 |
| Leverage Ratios | Caa2 | Baa2 |
| Cash Flow | C | Baa2 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | Baa2 | Caa2 |
*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
PSI-20: A Deep Dive into Portugal's Stock Market
The PSI-20 is Portugal's benchmark stock market index, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the country's equity market performance. It comprises the 20 most actively traded stocks on Euronext Lisbon, representing a broad cross-section of the Portuguese economy, including sectors such as banking, energy, and telecommunications. The index is calculated in real-time, reflecting the constant fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment.
The PSI-20 has been experiencing a period of steady growth, mirroring the overall positive trajectory of the Portuguese economy. The index has consistently outperformed major European indices in recent years, benefiting from favorable macroeconomic conditions, including low interest rates and a resilient labor market. As a result, the PSI-20 has attracted significant investor interest, both domestic and international, contributing to its overall liquidity and stability.
The competitive landscape within the PSI-20 is highly concentrated, with a few large companies dominating the index composition. Banco Comercial Português (BCP) and Galp Energia, a leading energy company, together account for a significant portion of the index weight. Other notable companies in the index include the telecommunications giant NOS SGPS and the construction and engineering group Mota-Engil. These companies have established strong market positions and benefit from a loyal customer base, providing them with a competitive edge.
Despite its strong performance, the PSI-20 faces potential challenges that could impact its future trajectory. These include geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic headwinds, and potential interest rate hikes. Moreover, the index's concentration in a few large companies makes it susceptible to fluctuations in their performance, which could lead to volatility. Nonetheless, the PSI-20 remains a key indicator of the health of the Portuguese economy and a valuable reference point for investors seeking exposure to the country's stock market.
PSI-20 Index Set to Resume Growth in the Coming Months
The PSI-20, Portugal's benchmark stock index, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the coming months. The index has been on a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year, reaching its highest level in over a decade in March. Despite some recent volatility, the index is expected to continue to benefit from a number of positive factors, including strong economic growth, low interest rates, and increased investor confidence.
One of the key drivers of the PSI-20's growth has been the strong performance of the Portuguese economy. The country's GDP has been growing at a steady pace for several quarters, and is expected to continue to grow in the coming months. This growth has been driven by a number of factors, including strong exports, increased tourism, and increased investment. The government has also implemented a number of policies to support economic growth, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending.
Another factor that is expected to support the PSI-20's growth is the low interest rate environment. The European Central Bank has kept interest rates at record lows for several years, and is expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This has made it more attractive for investors to invest in stocks, as they are able to earn a higher return on their investment than they would from bonds or other fixed-income investments.
Finally, the PSI-20 is also expected to benefit from increased investor confidence. The Portuguese government has made a number of changes to improve the country's business climate, and this has led to increased interest from foreign investors. Additionally, the country's political situation has stabilized in recent months, which has also helped to improve investor confidence.
PSI-20 Index: A Pulse of Portugal's Market
The PSI-20 Index serves as a barometer of the performance of the top 20 publicly traded companies in Portugal. It is a market-capitalization-weighted index that tracks the price movements of these leading stocks, providing a broad overview of the Portuguese equity market's performance....
Recent Market Performance
As of [insert date], the PSI-20 Index has been trading within a range, indicating a period of relative stability. The index has been influenced by a combination of factors, including global economic uncertainty, interest rate movements, and company-specific news....
Company News
Among the prominent companies listed on the PSI-20, notable news includes: * **EDP - Energias de Portugal (EDP)**: The energy utility announced plans to divest some of its assets in Brazil, aiming to focus on renewable energy investments. * **Banco Comercial Português (BCP)**: The bank reported a profit increase for the first quarter of 2023, driven by higher net interest income and reduced operating expenses....
Market Outlook
Analysts remain cautious in their outlook for the PSI-20 Index in the near term, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. However, the index is expected to benefit from the long-term growth potential of the Portuguese economy and the resilience of its listed companies.Assessing Risk in the Portuguese Stock Market
The PSI-20 index, which comprises the 20 most significant companies listed on the Euronext Lisbon exchange, serves as a barometer for the health of the Portuguese equity market. Evaluating risk associated with the PSI-20 is crucial for investors seeking to manage their portfolios effectively. Several factors contribute to the risk profile of the PSI-20 index:
The index is heavily influenced by the performance of a few large-cap stocks, particularly those in the banking, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Concentration risk arises from this dependence on a limited number of companies, as their underperformance can significantly impact the overall index value.
The Portuguese economy is closely tied to the broader European economy, particularly to its larger neighbors, Spain and Germany. As a result, the PSI-20 index is susceptible to external economic shocks and geopolitical events affecting the Eurozone. Economic downturns or political instability in Europe can negatively impact the index's performance.
The PSI-20 index has demonstrated moderate volatility in recent years, with periodic fluctuations driven by economic conditions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. However, the index is not immune to sharp market corrections or periods of sustained decline, as witnessed during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors should be aware of the potential for significant losses in adverse market conditions.
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