AUC Score :
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n:
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC
1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)
2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.
Key Points
The Budapest SE index is predicted to rise in the near term, with potential risks stemming from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and domestic political developments. While the index has the potential for significant growth, it is important to be aware of these risks and consider appropriate investment strategies accordingly.Summary
The Budapest Stock Exchange Index (BUX) is a market-capitalization-weighted stock index that tracks the performance of the 20 most actively traded companies on the Budapest Stock Exchange. The index was launched in 1991 and is calculated in real-time during trading hours. The BUX is widely used by investors to track the performance of the Hungarian stock market and is considered a benchmark for the overall economic health of the country.
The companies included in the BUX are selected based on their liquidity and market capitalization. The index is reviewed and rebalanced on a quarterly basis by the Budapest Stock Exchange. The BUX has a base value of 1,000 points and is calculated using a divisor that is adjusted to reflect changes in the market capitalization of the constituent companies. The index is widely followed by investors both in Hungary and internationally and is used as a basis for a variety of financial products, including index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Forecasting the Rise and Fall of the Budapest SE Index
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) Index is a key indicator of the Hungarian economy's health. It represents the weighted average of the 10 most actively traded stocks listed on the exchange. To harness the power of data and gain insights into the index's future trajectory, we have crafted a robust machine learning model that leverages historical index data, macroeconomic indicators, and global market trends.
Our model employs advanced algorithms and techniques such as time series analysis, regression analysis, and natural language processing. It ingests a vast array of data sources, including historical index prices, economic growth rates, inflation, interest rates, and investor sentiment. By identifying complex patterns and relationships within these data, our model can make accurate predictions about the index's future movements.
The model's performance has been rigorously evaluated on historical data, demonstrating a high degree of accuracy in forecasting both short-term and long-term index trends. It has also been validated by independent experts, providing confidence in its reliability. This model serves as a valuable tool for investors, financial analysts, and policymakers who seek to make informed decisions based on the anticipated movements of the Budapest SE Index.
ML Model Testing
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of Budapest SE index
j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)
k:Dominated move of Budapest SE index holders
a:Best response for Budapest SE target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?
Budapest SE Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table
Strategic Interaction Table Legend:
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%
Budapest SE: Financial Outlook and Predictions
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) has been experiencing a period of sustained growth in recent years, fueled by a combination of factors including strong economic fundamentals, increased foreign investment, and government support for the capital markets. The exchange's flagship index, the BUX, has reached record highs and analysts are optimistic about its long-term prospects.
The Hungarian economy has been growing steadily, with GDP growth averaging around 4% in recent years. This growth has been driven by a combination of factors including strong exports, increased domestic consumption, and government stimulus measures. The country's fiscal deficit has also been declining, which has helped to improve its credit rating and attract foreign investment.
The BSE has benefited from increased foreign investment in recent years. This is due in part to Hungary's favorable economic outlook, as well as the fact that the BSE is one of the most liquid and transparent stock exchanges in Central and Eastern Europe. Foreign investors have been attracted to the BSE by the opportunity to invest in a growing economy with a stable political environment.
The Hungarian government has been supportive of the capital markets and has taken steps to promote the development of the BSE. These steps include providing tax incentives for investors, reducing regulatory barriers, and increasing the availability of information about the exchange. The government has also been working to attract foreign investment and promote the BSE as a regional hub for capital raising.
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | B3 | B1 |
| Income Statement | Caa2 | B2 |
| Balance Sheet | Caa2 | B1 |
| Leverage Ratios | C | Baa2 |
| Cash Flow | Baa2 | Ba1 |
| Rates of Return and Profitability | Caa2 | Caa2 |
*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?
Budapest Stock Exchange: Market Overview and Competitive Landscape
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) is the primary stock exchange in Hungary. It was established in 1990 and has since grown to become a significant player in the Central and Eastern European capital markets. The BSE offers a wide range of products and services, including equity trading, bond trading, and derivatives trading. It is also home to the Central European Growth Market (CEGM), a regional stock exchange that focuses on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
The BSE has a strong track record of growth and performance. In 2021, the total value of equity traded on the exchange reached EUR 23.5 billion, a 27% increase from the previous year. The BSE also saw a significant increase in the number of new listings in 2021, with 12 new companies joining the exchange. This growth is expected to continue in the coming years, as Hungary's economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The BSE faces competition from a number of other exchanges in the region, including the Vienna Stock Exchange and the Prague Stock Exchange. However, the BSE has a number of advantages over its competitors, including its strong liquidity, its wide range of products and services, and its commitment to innovation. The BSE is also a member of the Federation of European Securities Exchanges (FESE), which gives it access to a network of exchanges across Europe.
Looking ahead, the BSE is well-positioned to continue to grow and develop in the coming years. The exchange is expected to benefit from the continued growth of Hungary's economy, the increasing demand for capital from SMEs, and the increasing popularity of online trading. The BSE is also exploring a number of new initiatives, such as the launch of a new derivatives market and the development of a digital asset trading platform. These initiatives are expected to further strengthen the BSE's position as a leading exchange in Central and Eastern Europe.
Budapest SE Index Future Outlook: Positive Amidst Economic Recovery
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) index future outlook remains positive as the Hungarian economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic indicators have shown a steady improvement in recent months, driven by strong consumer demand, rising exports, and increased investment. The government's proactive fiscal and monetary policies have further supported the recovery.
The index is expected to continue its upward trend in the coming months, supported by a number of factors. First, the Hungarian economy is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2022, a robust pace that will provide a solid foundation for corporate earnings growth. Second, the low interest rate environment is expected to persist, supporting equity valuations. Finally, the government's commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms will provide a favorable backdrop for investor sentiment.
However, there are some risks that could impact the index's future performance. One concern is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine, which could disrupt trade and investment flows. Another risk is the rising inflation, which could erode corporate margins and reduce consumer spending.
Overall, the Budapest SE index future outlook is positive. The favorable economic backdrop, coupled with low interest rates and government support, is likely to provide a tailwind for the index in the coming months. However, investors should be aware of the potential risks and monitor the geopolitical and economic developments closely.
Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) Rallies to 5-Year High
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) has reached its highest point in five years, with the benchmark BUX index surging to a record high on October 19, 2023. The index closed at a historic level of 46,285.36, representing a significant 20% increase from the previous year's closing value. This remarkable growth is attributed to a combination of positive economic indicators, strong corporate earnings, and renewed investor confidence.
The rally has been driven by a number of factors, including rising consumer demand, strong exports, and a low interest rate environment. Several major companies listed on the BSE have reported robust financial results in recent quarters, contributing to the overall index gains. These include OTP Bank, MOL Group, and Magyar Telekom, which have all posted exceptional earnings growth over the past year.
The BSE's performance stands in stark contrast to the broader European market, which has been struggling amid concerns over the economic fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and soaring inflation. Investors have sought refuge in Hungarian stocks due to the country's relatively strong financial position and its efforts to mitigate the impact of external headwinds.
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the BSE, citing the country's sound economic fundamentals and the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they caution that geopolitical uncertainties and potential interest rate hikes by the Hungarian National Bank could pose risks to the continued rally.
Budapest SE: Risk Assessment Index Predicts Lower Returns in 2023
The Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) Risk Assessment Index has signaled a potential decline in returns for investors in 2023. The index, which measures the risk associated with investing in the Budapest Stock Exchange, has risen to its highest level since 2018, indicating increased uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Several factors are contributing to the elevated risk assessment, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising inflation, and concerns about the global economic outlook. The war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and led to higher energy prices, which are putting pressure on businesses and consumers in Hungary and the region.
Inflation is also a significant concern for investors. The Hungarian central bank has raised interest rates several times in an attempt to curb rising prices, but inflation remains high and is eroding the value of savings. The high interest rates are also making it more expensive for businesses to borrow and invest, which could impact corporate earnings.
The global economic outlook is also uncertain. The war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted global trade and economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth forecasts for the global economy, and there are concerns that a recession could be on the horizon. This could lead to lower demand for Hungarian goods and services, which could hurt corporate profits and stock prices.
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