TDY Stock: In a Bubble?

Outlook: Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TDY stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for TDY stock price prediction process.
2. Statistical Hypothesis Testing
3. Reaction Function
4. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
5. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

TDY Stock Price Forecast

We consider Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TDY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TDY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TDY stock holders

a:Best response for TDY target price

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ Statistical hypothesis testing is a process used to determine whether there is enough evidence to support a claim about a population based on a sample. The process involves making two hypotheses, a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis, and then collecting data and using statistical tests to determine which hypothesis is more likely to be true. The null hypothesis is the statement that there is no difference between the population and the sample. The alternative hypothesis is the statement that there is a difference between the population and the sample. The statistical test is used to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, which means that there is less than a 5% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true.^6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

TDY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based TDY Stock Prediction Model

1. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
2. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
3. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
4. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Income Statement	Ba3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	B1	B1
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	B3
Cash Flow	Baa2	B2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

1. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
2. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
4. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
6. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
7. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is TDY stock expected to rise?
A: TDY stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing and it is concluded that dominant strategy for TDY stock is Hold
Q: Is TDY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TDY Stock.
Q: Is Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Teledyne Technologies Incorporated Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TDY stock?
A: The consensus rating for TDY is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for TDY stock?
A: TDY target price forecast: Hold