NGG Stock: A Risky Investment

Outlook: National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for NGG stock price prediction process.
2. ElasticNet Regression
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
4. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
5. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

NGG Stock Price Forecast

We consider National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NGG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

F(ElasticNet Regression)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NGG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NGG stock holders

a:Best response for NGG target price

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.^6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NGG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based NGG Stock Prediction Model

1. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
2. The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding
3. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.
4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Income Statement	Caa2	Ba3
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	Ba3
Cash Flow	B1	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
2. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
4. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
7. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is NGG stock expected to rise?
A: NGG stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for NGG stock is Hold
Q: Is NGG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NGG Stock.
Q: Is National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NGG stock?
A: The consensus rating for NGG is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for NGG stock?
A: NGG target price forecast: Hold