AFMD Stock: In a Bubble?

Outlook: Affimed N.V. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Affimed N.V. prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for AFMD stock price prediction process.
2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
3. Prediction Modeling
4. Can statistics predict the future?
5. How do you pick a stock?

AFMD Stock Price Forecast

We consider Affimed N.V. Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFMD Affimed N.V.
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFMD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of AFMD stock holders

a:Best response for AFMD target price

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.^6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

AFMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based AFMD Stock Prediction Model

1. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
2. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
3. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
4. In addition to those hedging relationships specified in paragraph 6.9.1, an entity shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to new hedging relationships in which an alternative benchmark rate is designated as a non-contractually specified risk component (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) when, because of interest rate benchmark reform, that risk component is not separately identifiable at the date it is designated.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AFMD Affimed N.V. Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B1	Baa2
Balance Sheet	B2	B3
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Ba2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

1. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
4. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
6. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
7. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is AFMD stock expected to rise?
A: AFMD stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for AFMD stock is Sell
Q: Is AFMD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AFMD Stock.
Q: Is Affimed N.V. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Affimed N.V. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFMD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFMD is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for AFMD stock?
A: AFMD target price forecast: Sell