Is VBFC Stock Expected to Go Up?

Outlook: Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VBFC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for VBFC stock price prediction process.
2. Ridge Regression
3. How useful are statistical predictions?
4. What are main components of Markov decision process?
5. Reaction Function

VBFC Stock Price Forecast

We consider Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of VBFC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VBFC Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

F(Ridge Regression)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VBFC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of VBFC stock holders

a:Best response for VBFC target price

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.⁵ Ridge regression is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "ridge" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "ridge constant". Ridge regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Ridge regression can help to reduce the standard errors of the coefficients and to make the coefficients more stable.^6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

VBFC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based VBFC Stock Prediction Model

1. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.
2. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
3. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
4. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

VBFC Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	B1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	B2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Ba3
Rates of Return and Profitability	B2	B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

1. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
2. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
3. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
4. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
5. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
6. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
7. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is VBFC stock expected to rise?
A: VBFC stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for VBFC stock is Buy
Q: Is VBFC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VBFC Stock.
Q: Is Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VBFC stock?
A: The consensus rating for VBFC is Buy.
Q: What is the forecast for VBFC stock?
A: VBFC target price forecast: Buy