DAVA Stock: A Bright Investment or a Bubble Waiting to Burst?

Outlook: Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DAVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.⁵ According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Key Points

1. Multi-Task Learning (ML) for DAVA stock price prediction process.
2. Multiple Regression
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
4. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
5. How can neural networks improve predictions?

DAVA Stock Price Forecast

We consider Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DAVA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share)
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

F(Multiple Regression)^6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DAVA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of DAVA stock holders

a:Best response for DAVA target price

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.⁵ Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.^6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

DAVA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based DAVA Stock Prediction Model

1. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
2. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

DAVA Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba2
Income Statement	C	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	B2	Caa2
Cash Flow	C	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

1. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
3. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
4. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
5. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
6. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
7. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is DAVA stock expected to rise?
A: DAVA stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for DAVA stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is DAVA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend DAVA Stock.
Q: Is Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Endava plc American Depositary Shares (each representing one Class A Ordinary Share) is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DAVA stock?
A: The consensus rating for DAVA is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for DAVA stock?
A: DAVA target price forecast: Speculative Trend