CNFRL Stock: Is It a Bubble?

Outlook: Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CNFRL stock is predictable in the short/long term. In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Is Target price a good indicator?
2. Dominated Move
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

CNFRL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of CNFRL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CNFRL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.

Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CNFRL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CNFRL Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) based CNFRL Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity shall apply Prepayment Features with Negative Compensation (Amendments to IFRS 9) retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.30–7.2.34
2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
3. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
4. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CNFRL Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Income Statement	Ba3	C
Balance Sheet	C	B2
Leverage Ratios	C	C
Cash Flow	Baa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CNFRL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 794 signals.

References

1. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
4. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
5. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
6. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
7. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CNFRL stock?
A: CNFRL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is CNFRL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CNFRL Stock.
Q: Is Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Conifer Holdings Inc. 6.75% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023 is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CNFRL stock?
A: The consensus rating for CNFRL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CNFRL stock?
A: The prediction period for CNFRL is 6 Month