NEU Stock: Is It a Bubble?

Outlook: NewMarket Corp Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Abstract

NewMarket Corp Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NEU stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
2. What is prediction model?
3. Operational Risk

NEU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NewMarket Corp Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NEU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NEU stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transfer Learning (ML)

Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NEU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for 8 Weeks

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NEU NewMarket Corp Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 21 Jun 2023 for 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NewMarket Corp Common Stock

1. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
2. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.
3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
4. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NewMarket Corp Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating. NewMarket Corp Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NEU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

NEU NewMarket Corp Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B1
Income Statement	C	Ba2
Balance Sheet	B3	C
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	B1
Cash Flow	B3	B2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 490 signals.

References

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2. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
3. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
4. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
5. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
6. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NEU stock?
A: NEU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NEU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NEU Stock.
Q: Is NewMarket Corp Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NewMarket Corp Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NEU stock?
A: The consensus rating for NEU is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NEU stock?
A: The prediction period for NEU is 8 Weeks