How Do You Pick a Stock? (PKG Stock Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We evaluate Packaging Corporation of America prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy PKG stock.

Keywords: PKG, Packaging Corporation of America, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is Target price a good indicator?
2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
3. Market Risk

PKG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We consider Packaging Corporation of America Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of PKG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PKG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PKG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PKG Packaging Corporation of America
Time series to forecast n: 24 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy PKG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Packaging Corporation of America assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PKG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy PKG stock.

Financial State Forecast for PKG Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	43	85
Market Risk	75	36
Technical Analysis	53	86
Fundamental Analysis	89	48
Risk Unsystematic	48	35

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 510 signals.

References

1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
3. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
4. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
5. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
6. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
7. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PKG stock?
A: PKG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is PKG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy PKG Stock.
Q: Is Packaging Corporation of America stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Packaging Corporation of America is SellBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PKG stock?
A: The consensus rating for PKG is SellBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PKG stock?
A: The prediction period for PKG is (n+3 month)