Should You Buy Now or Wait? FRC Stock Forecast

Abstract

We evaluate First Republic Bank prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.

Keywords: FRC, First Republic Bank, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. What is neural prediction?

FRC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Republic Bank Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FRC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FRC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FRC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FRC First Republic Bank
Time series to forecast n: 06 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

First Republic Bank assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FRC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC stock.

Financial State Forecast for FRC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Operational Risk	50	72
Market Risk	90	37
Technical Analysis	38	69
Fundamental Analysis	38	55
Risk Unsystematic	57	53

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 768 signals.

References

1. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
2. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
3. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
5. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
7. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FRC stock?
A: FRC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is FRC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FRC Stock.
Q: Is First Republic Bank stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Republic Bank is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FRC stock?
A: The consensus rating for FRC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for FRC stock?
A: The prediction period for FRC is (n+6 month)