Can neural networks predict stock market? (ESI Stock Forecast)

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. We evaluate Element Solutions prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESI stock.

Keywords: ESI, Element Solutions, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

ESI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We consider Element Solutions Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ESI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ESI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ESI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ESI Element Solutions
Time series to forecast n: 13 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Element Solutions assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ESI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESI stock.

Financial State Forecast for ESI Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Operational Risk	71	90
Market Risk	53	77
Technical Analysis	57	33
Fundamental Analysis	90	33
Risk Unsystematic	61	37

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 674 signals.

References

1. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
2. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
3. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
4. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
5. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
6. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ESI stock?
A: ESI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is ESI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ESI Stock.
Q: Is Element Solutions stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Element Solutions is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ESI stock?
A: The consensus rating for ESI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ESI stock?
A: The prediction period for ESI is (n+4 weeks)